WHB Production Archive
Executive Summary
Analysis of 119 SKUs across 18,336 production records (2020-07 → 2026-06), drawn from 97 WHB_FORMULAS.xlsx snapshots.
Total units produced
648,133
Jul 2020 – Apr 2026
Distinct SKUs
119
peak 92 in 2024
Production records
18,336
delivery-day snapshots
Long-running SKUs
41
active ≥60 months
1 · Six years of growth — then a sharp contraction
Production grew every year from 2021–2024, peaking at 134,938 units (+19.1% on 2023). 2025 reversed sharply to 108,716 units (−19.4%), with the active range falling from 92 SKUs back to 64.
| Year | Units | Active SKUs | YoY | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020partial | 38,183 | 57 | — | |
| 2021 | 99,418 | 65 | +160.4% | |
| 2022 | 102,141 | 73 | +2.7% | |
| 2023 | 113,312 | 70 | +10.9% | |
| 2024 | 134,938 | 92 | +19.1% | |
| 2025 | 108,716 | 64 | -19.4% | |
| 2026partial | 51,425 | 55 | -52.7% |
2 · A highly concentrated product mix
The top 10 SKUs account for 53.9% of all production. The top 5 alone represent 32.7%, led by croissants, almond croissants, white sourdough, cinnamon scrolls, and fruit Danish.
| # | SKU | Units | Share | Months active | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | crois | 60,495 | 9.3% | 69 | 9.3% |
| 2 | almcro (TOTAL) | 43,803 | 6.8% | 69 | 16.1% |
| 3 | ws630 (Total) | 42,681 | 6.6% | 69 | 22.7% |
| 4 | cinscrol | 32,866 | 5.1% | 69 | 27.7% |
| 5 | danfruit (Total) | 31,838 | 4.9% | 69 | 32.7% |
| 6 | pchoc | 30,648 | 4.7% | 69 | 37.4% |
| 7 | ws630 (unsliced) | 30,115 | 4.6% | 53 | 42.0% |
| 8 | almcro (dusted) | 25,866 | 4.0% | 53 | 46.0% |
| 9 | ws900 (Total) | 25,778 | 4.0% | 69 | 50.0% |
| 10 | ws450 | 25,119 | 3.9% | 69 | 53.9% |
3 · April dominates; January is the quietest month
Aggregated across all years, April is by far the busiest production month (75,338 units) — consistent with Easter demand. July, September, and December form a secondary peak. In the aggregate, January is the quietest (15,829 units, roughly 5× below the April peak).
Year × month heatmap
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 4k | 5k | 8k | 7k | 4k | 10k | ||||||
| 2021 | 2k | 5k | 6k | 14k | 7k | 13k | 8k | 7k | 12k | 7k | 8k | 12k |
| 2022 | 6k | 9k | 10k | 6k | 11k | 7k | 11k | 14k | 5k | 9k | 13k | |
| 2023 | 1k | 7k | 13k | 7k | 10k | 8k | 14k | 15k | 9k | 8k | 12k | 8k |
| 2024 | 9k | 12k | 9k | 11k | 18k | 9k | 15k | 10k | 8k | 17k | 10k | 9k |
| 2025 | 5k | 10k | 6k | 12k | 6k | 8k | 14k | 9k | 10k | 13k | 6k | 11k |
| 2026 | 7k | 8k | 22k | 14k |
4 · Active range expanded then contracted
The product range grew steadily to a peak of 92 active SKUs in 2024, before contracting. The archive captures the full lifecycle:
5 · Demand spikes outweigh drops 7:1
Statistical outlier detection (≥2σ from each SKU's historical mean) found 171 flagged months across all SKUs. The bias is almost entirely upside — 151 spikes vs 20 drops. The largest cluster is April 2026, with broad upside flags across the range.
Total flags
171
Spikes
151
Drops
20
Anomaly flags by month
| Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 1 | 1 | 5 | |||||||||
| 2021 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | ||||
| 2022 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 6 | ||||||||
| 2023 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | |||||||
| 2024 | 10 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 8 | |||||
| 2025 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 10 | ||||||||
| 2026 | 1 | 35 | 14 |
6 · Some recipes are stable; a handful change repeatedly
Across 42 extracted formula sheets, the archive contains 118 recipe version windows. 12 sheets have a single captured version, while14 sheets have four or more versions and need closer tracking.
7 · Batch plan: what goes into the ovens each week
WHY TOTALS sheets — present in 65 of the 97 archive snapshots — capture the weekly oven plan for each loaf type. Average quantities and dough weights below are taken across all bake-plan snapshots where that loaf appeared.
| # | Loaf type | Avg qty / bake | Avg dough (kg) | Snapshots |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | LOAVES 750S | 114 | 85.2 | 46 |
| 2 | LOAVES 1080L | 74 | 80.2 | 46 |
| 3 | LOAVES 550XS | 68 | 37.2 | 46 |
| 4 | BOULES 200200 | 53 | 10.7 | 9 |
| 5 | BOULES 250250 | 42 | 10.6 | 23 |
| 6 | SEED 750SSeed | 36 | 24.4 | 27 |
| 7 | LOAVES 1500Cub | 33 | 49.8 | 46 |
| 8 | FIG_WAL 700Fig | 20 | 11.4 | 46 |
| 9 | LOAVES 2400Bal | 20 | 48.3 | 45 |
| 10 | BOULES 250250.0 | 16 | 4 | 1 |
Avg total dough per bake plan by year (kg)
8 · Weekly ingredient consumption by year
INGREDIENT USAGE sheets track weekly input quantities by mix-day type. Figures shown are weekly totals excluding burger-bun batches — columns with widespread #REF! errors in the source files (total eggs, total butter, total yeast) are omitted.
| Year | Eggs (kg/wk) | Butter (kg/wk) | Dry butter (kg/wk) | Ground almonds (kg/wk) | Files |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 12.3 | 4.5 | 38.3 | 6.4 | 7 |
| 2023 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 43.6 | 11.8 | 12 |
| 2024 | 14.7 | 5.2 | 58.8 | 11.2 | 12 |
| 2025 | 16.7 | 6.3 | 74.8 | 13.8 | 12 |
| 2026 | 16.8 | 6 | 67 | 13 | 6 |
Source materials
All figures above are derived in real time from the WHB formula extract database. The following pages expose the underlying data in full.
Demand History
Monthly volume chart per SKU, annual totals, and active-month breakdown. Covers all 119 SKUs from 2020-07 to 2026-06.
/demand →
Anomaly Flags
Every month where a SKU's volume deviated by ≥2σ from its historical mean, ranked by severity. 171 flags across the dataset.
/demand/anomalies →
Recipe History
SCD2 version timeline for all formula sheets — when each recipe changed and by how much. Click any sheet for a full ingredient diff.
/recipes →
Bake Brain Validation
Live comparison of Bake Brain's current baker's percentages against the latest WHB archive snapshot, flagging major and minor divergences.
/bake/validation →
Gross Profit Margin Analysis
GP% breakdown by dough type (retail vs wholesale), per-SKU wholesale margin ranking, ingredient cost pressure, and food cost trend over time.
/formula-files/profitability →
Active Ingredient Prices
2026 prices for all active bake formula ingredients, cross-referenced from Xero purchase invoice PDFs with source references for manual verification.
/formula-files/ingredient-prices →
Raw source: 97 WHB_FORMULAS.xlsx snapshots indexed from Google Drive (2010-10 – 2026-06), extracted via scripts/whb-extract/.
Why this is high confidence
The archive was checked end-to-end, from the cached Excel workbooks through the extract files, database tables, and this page's displayed claims.
Source workbooks
PASS97 checked
74 workbooks contain RAW order sheets; all cached files were reopened directly.
RAW order extraction
PASS18,297 rows matched
Direct Excel reads matched the saved order extract row-for-row and unit-for-unit.
Database parity
PASS18,336 rows matched
After the importer collapsed 313 duplicate file/date/SKU rows, extract JSON and database rows matched exactly.
Recipe history
PASS118 versions matched
42 recipe sheets and 1,813 ingredient rows matched direct workbook reads.
One low-risk caveat remains: Excel row/column extent metadata can vary because styled empty cells are exposed differently by spreadsheet readers. Those extent differences are tracked in the audit, but they do not affect the order totals, recipe ingredients, SKU counts, date ranges, or claims above.